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Monthly Rainfall & Temperature Forecast For Belize (January 2013) Print E-mail
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Written by Administrator   
Thursday, 31 January 2013 00:00

Prepared by The National Meteorological Service
(Climate Section)


Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the rainfall and temperature forecast for the month of January. This was done by using the data set for the period 1981-2010, along with global models, observations and subjective input.

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus, based on the dataset 1981 to 2010, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast is for Normal Rainfall and Slightly above Normal Temperature for January 2013 for the entire country.

Rainfall

Probabilistically, there is a 25% chance of above normal rainfall.
40% chance of near normal rainfall.
35% chance of below normal rainfall.
The rainfall that is expected over some district stations is as follows.

Northern Areas
Libertad (Corozal) (28.95-72.49mm) or (1.13-2.85 inches)
Tower Hill (Orange walk (44.2-83.4mm) or (1.74-3.28 inches)

Central and Inland Areas
Philip Goldson Airport (Belize) (98.3-188.6 mm) or 3.87-7.41 inches)
Belmopan (Cayo) (77.04-142.26 mm) or (3.87-7.41 inches)
Central Farm (Cayo) (81.02-114.29 mm) or (3.18-4.49 inches)
Spanish Look out (Cayo) (64.22-95.21mm) or (2.53-3.75 inches)

Southern Areas
Middlesex (Stann Creek) (98.19-201.8 mm) or (3.86-7.94 inches)
Pomona (Stann Creek Valley) (97.56-186.8 mm) or (3.84-7.35 inches)
Melinda (Stann Creek Valley) (83.06-185.79 mm) or (3.27-7.31 inches)
Savannah (South Stann Creek) (97.6-143.77 mm) or (3.84-5.66 inches)
Big Falls South (Punta Gorda) (92.85-144.17 mm) or (3.65-5.67 inches)
Punta Gorda (Punta Gorda) (109.64-144.17 mm) or (4.31-5.67 inches)

Temperature
Above normal temperature can be expected over Belize and her coastal waters for the month of January 2013s. Above normal temperature is most likely i.e. greater than 26.1°C. Probabilistically, there is a 40% chance of above normal temperature.
35% chance of near normal temperature.
25% chance of below normal temperature.

Northern Areas
40% chance of above normal temperature (above 24.2°C).

Central and Inland Areas

40% chance of above normal temperature (above 24.3°C).
Southern Areas

40% chance of above normal temperature (above 24.7°C).
Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.